AEW Full Gear preview & predictions: A man alone
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The following is an opinion-based preview and reflects the views of the author.
AEW desperately needed to put together a well-conceived pay-per-view with Saturday's Full Gear (8 PM Eastern) with a steady, reliable build. Friends, I have good news! They have largely accomplished that.
Almost everything on this card makes sense in storyline and most matches were given enough screen time to get the audience to care. At times, the booking can seem like Tony Khan playing a song that only he can hear. But Full Gear is a step in the right direction: a solid show to stabilize AEW moving into Worlds End in December and the start of a new year.
No AEW preview would be complete without checking in on an increasingly worrisome trend: the growing reliance on stars from the past. Popping a rating is good and high numbers of buys for PPVs are necessary. Both are vital in keeping a company financially healthy. But at some point, all eyes need to look toward the future and not six or eight weeks down the road (though AEW would be wise to do more of that as well) but months and years).
The question the big decision-makers should be trying to answer is, “What does this company look like in three years?” Succession planning is challenging in any industry, especially one like pro wrestling. The pool of talent is so small. Within this confined space, the quest for true game-changers, the elusive outliers, the singular HIMs and HERs of the world is a perpetual chase. In a sport rife with unpredictability, identifying who is next, and getting them there, is paramount.
AEW will deliver on Saturday as they always do. It’s good to be excited about the stories behind matches coming in. Time for some previews and predictions for all the matches announced as of Friday morning.
The Young Bucks (Matt & Nick Jackson) vs. The Golden Jets (Chris Jericho & Kenny Omega)
Here's the stipulation: If the Jets win, they get the Bucks' future AEW Tag Team Championship opportunity. If the Bucks win, the Jets must disband as a team.
The Bucks are terrible friends, giving off some of the worst "guys being dudes" energy of all time. Whenever their friends are doing something that is not in service of whatever their weird agenda happens to be, they act like the toddler who was denied another piece of candy. Swerve Strickland breaks into Adam Page’s house? Sorry pal, can’t help you because we need you laser-focused on meaningless Trios titles. Kenny Omega engages in a brief and somewhat understandable dalliance with Chris Jericho? Apologies, my friend but you simply must defeat us in a tag team match or break up forever.
Omega and Jericho have had exactly five matches together as a team. Was their partnership elegantly constructed? Dear readers, it was not. But there are at least some understandable motivations behind it. Both are extremely Canadian and both hate Don Callis. Successful marriages are built on less. Yet, the Bucks are acting like Omega committed high treason.
This is the reason they, in canon, have no friends. Rather than support their friends in their endeavors, be it Omega now or Page in his entire AEW history, they whine and do whatever they can to take the shine away from their so-called friends. Notice only two people listed there? Curious!
The Bucks should always be terrible. They are so good at it.
Prediction: The Golden Jets
Sting, Darby Allin & Adam Copeland (with, sigh, Ric Flair) vs. Christian Cage, Luchasaurus & Nick Wayne
Is Flair going to get a full entrance on a PPV in 2023? Has it come to this? Usually, AEW’s decisions are, at best, met with fanfare and, at worst, with an eye roll. This is the first time that a "major announcement" — and I’m letting the word "major" carry a lot of water — was met with scorn and disgust by a large portion of AEW fans. The people are upset, and they have a right to be.
Spare me the excuses about Sting and Flair’s history. Bringing the man in for a one-off is one thing. Signing him to a long-term deal that includes a partnership with his terrible energy drink is another altogether. Flair has long since run out of goodwill. He remains a detestable relic that has lost whatever shreds of redeeming charm he had years ago. He deserves no place on our televisions.
The Flair signing is so laughable that I gave it space in #mycolumn before talking about Copeland’s PPV debut. I am trying to remain cautiously optimistic about what the now 50-year-old Copeland — a name I’m still having a hard time typing — can do in AEW on a full-time schedule. We’ve seen first-hand the trouble Bryan Danielson has had with staying healthy and working nearly a full schedule and he's eight years younger.
Since his return in 2020, Copeland has already had two significant injuries, that being a torn triceps and a sprained MCL. The human body does not get better with age. Our mortal vessels have an expiration date, and we get closer to them every day. This is especially true for older wrestlers. Aging gracefully is rarely a thing in this industry.
Copeland being used like Christian would be the ideal way to get as much out of him as possible. Will he be as captivating as everyone’s favorite patriarch? Doubtful, considering Christian is a top-three act in all of wrestling right now and he’s not third on that list. Cautious in-ring time combined with interesting creative would give Copeland everything he needs to cap off his legendary career.
Prediction: Sting, Allin & Copeland
Hangman Page vs. Swerve Strickland in a Texas Death Match
Swerve is an audacious, velvety performer: moving with a grace that still surprises even though he’s been on our screens for years. His current run in AEW has seen him fully realize all of his gifts. He knows who he is every second he’s on screen and it shows in his presentation. From the detail on his ring gear to the subtle eye and facial movements, everything is calculated and everything works. By any reasonable measure, this is an all-caps STAR with no qualifier needed. Frankly, I am tired of wondering when his rocket will launch. It’s been ready for a long time; someone just needs to hit the ignition switch.
Where Strickland is smooth and cool, Page is emotional and fiery. Far more than his never-ending on again/off again pals in The Elite, Page is the heart and soul of AEW. He is the heartbeat that can sustain the entire company. At his peak, there was no one the crowd got behind more. They desperately cared about him and his success. He is the best pure babyface in the company and should never be far from the main event.
The build to this is as good as anything AEW has done this year. A fired-up Hangman promo remains one of the best things in all of wrestling; it can sell a match by itself. If this rivalry is destined for a rubber match, maybe a last man standing match at Worlds End, so Page needs the win Saturday.
Prediction: Page
AEW Tag Team Champions Ricky Starks & Big Bill defend against LFI (Rush & Dralístico), FTR (Cash Wheeler & Dax Harwood), and Kings of The Black Throne (Malakai Black & Brody King) in a four-way ladder match
One of AEW’s trademarks is the multi-person sprint that over-performs and over-delivers. I think of it as their forever love letter to Pro Wrestling Guerilla. Every team in this match brings something unique and special. Ricky and Big Bill bring charisma, LFI bring chaotic unpredictability, and FTR is FTR with no exposition required. The Kings of The Black Throne bring their own very specific brand of strikes and presence. Throw all these things together and you have the makings of something fast and a whole bunch of fun.
This feels like the perfect show opening match. Let these guys go on first, light up the crowd, and leave it up to the rest of the roster to follow it up.
Prediction: Starks and Big Bill retain
TBS Champion Kris Statlander defends against Julia Hart and Skye Blue in a three-way
One of the longest-running women’s programs at AEW gets a chance to shine on a big stage. Blue’s black mist-initiated transformation has been an interesting, slow burn. It’s brought a welcome change in her character, taking it from someone who smiles and sticks out their tongue to someone with actual intrigue. Is she affected by the mist? Is she pretending to be affected by the mist? Has she actually been a spooky grump the whole time? Who knows, but those are all questions that can be answered in this match.
Hart as this weird agent of chaotic change in AEW is a fun development. Establishing the black mist as something that can corrupt someone’s heart (pun extremely intended) and change their alignment is a plot device that, if used judiciously and creatively, allows for some interesting storylines in the future. That future is bright. She gets more comfortable with her character each week and the growth in the ring isn’t far behind.
As interesting as this is, it still isn’t time for a title change. Statlander, somehow, gets third billing in this program. She’s still looking for the signature moment in her title reign, and the match or program that we can point to as the defining moment of her reign. Until she gets that, she shouldn’t drop the title.
Prediction: Statlander retains
AEW International Champion Orange Cassidy defends against Jon Moxley
Their first match forever legitimized Cassidy, not that he needed it. Even though he lost, it put the stamp on what was the best championship reign in AEW history — one that saw him throw all of his opponents into his Jansport and carry them to a great match with no skips at all. It established Cassidy as someone who can step into the main event and carry a show. It was a bloody, desperate affair that fundamentally changed him.
His evolution has been incredible. His fixation on beating Moxley and desire to keep the International championship added significant depth to his ever-growing character. For the first time, he cares about something. He’s on my short-list for wrestler of the year — an unfathomable statement to consider even two years ago — and another classic on Saturday could put him near the top of that list.
This sequel has a lot to live up to, but both of these guys always deliver. They are the two most reliable performers in AEW. Moxley gets injured? Better call Orange. Need an emergency World champion? Dial 1-800-Moxley. They might not always be there when you call, but they’re always on time. Like Swerve vs. Page, this is billed as a sequel and most sequels wind up being a trilogy. Moxley needs to win to get us there.
Prediction: Moxley wins the title
AEW Women's Champion Hikaru Shida defends against Toni Storm
Shida, neither pinned nor submitted in 2023, is the true north of the AEW women’s division. She is the ‘home’ button on your GPS. No matter where the company might be or how lost they are, she’s always going to get you right where you need to be. In a division that seems to be in constant need of a stabilizing force at the top, Shida continues to be that. Consistently great between the ropes, she has a knack for building to the big moments on the biggest shows. This is what a true Ace looks like.
I was teetering on the verge of being out on this Storm gimmick (and I still might be) until a few weeks ago when she explained how she ended up this way. Not coming out on top at Wembley Stadium broke her and sent her on a slow descent into madness. A small amount of exposition backstory made her less of a gimmick designed to get catchphrases over and more of an actual character. Granted, something like this has a definitive shelf life and I’m curious if they know how they are going pay this off as they have no idea how to land this plane.
It seems like Storm’s next program will involve the freshly signed Mariah May in an All About Eve-type program. Does she cost her the title here? Or help her win it? I hope it’s the former. Shida deserves a long reign at the top, and the women’s division could use more than one story at a time.
Prediction: Shida retains
AEW World Champion MJF defends against Jay White
The build to this has seen the best and worst of MJF. Proven time again to be a top-tier mic worker, MJF often falls into bad habits. Top among them is using his unique connection with the audience to attempt to get anything over, no matter how bad it is. One example specifically: calling Jay White tofu and getting the crowd to chant it.
On the one hand, it speaks to his talent that he can get a crowd to chant "tofu" just by mentioning it and holding up a microphone. On the other hand, it’s getting a crowd to chant "tofu." It detracts from the moment at hand and serves absolutely nothing. Thankfully, they have moved away from the cringeworthy mic moments over the past month or so and toward a program that asks the existential question: can a person exist without any friends?
MJF has always been a man on an island. Even when part of The Pinnacle, it was Max and everyone else. His relationship with Wardlow was a marriage of convenience. Both of these associations were means to an end for MJF, either to push him up the card or to further establish him there. To him, though, they were real relationships. Of course they were — this is what he thought friendships were supposed to be. They’re supposed to be transactional. What good is someone if they can’t do something to benefit you?
That all changed when he met Adam Cole and got to experience an actual friendship — a reciprocal friendship where someone genuinely cared about him and his success. And now that Cole is gone, Max can identify for the first time what the emptiness in his life was. He wanders around backstage and is reminded of what isn’t there. He is, in many ways, the encapsulation of the loneliness epidemic in America where so many people have no close relationships. Even though he has a friend for the first time, he has never felt more alone.
I’m in total agreement with my colleague, the king Josh Nason, regarding White. He hasn’t been presented like a top guy. If a new fan turns on AEW, would they have any idea he’s a big deal? White is a big deal. He’s a former NJPW Grand Slam champion but isn’t presented that way. Bullet Club Gold is a wildly entertaining group, but nothing about them, or White, sadly, screams World champion. Except White is a world champion. He has been a world champion before and will be one again. It just won’t happen this weekend. Nothing about the build to this signals a title change.
Prediction: MJF retains